How Conflict Legacies Shape Green, Digital and Political Transitions in Africa
Transitions are usually presented as a movement between orders: from fossil fuels to renewable energy, analogue to digital technologies, unipolarity to geopolitical competition, or authoritarianism to democracy. In conflict-affected societies, however, transitions rarely replace one settled order with another. They enter political fields already organised by violence, fragmented authority, external intervention and unequal access to resources.
This matters across Africa, where green investment, digitalisation, geopolitical realignment and contested governance unfold simultaneously. These dynamics are often analysed separately, even when they converge in the same places and affect the same institutions and populations. It is important, therefore, not to simply identify transitions that are taking place; it is also a question of how the pressures they generate redistribute resources and authority, and how political and armed actors respond through existing institutions, identities and networks. Seeking to protect their positions or capture new opportunities, these actors may reproduce, fragment or reconfigure the political order. Similar pressures can therefore produce very different effects across conflict settings.
This article was first published by DIIS and the full text can be read on their website.
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