Securing the Eastern Flank: Understanding Belarus’ Role in European Security and Future Prospects
- EU and strategic partners,
- EU Enlargement and Neighbourhood,
- EU strategy and foreign policy,
- European Affairs,
- Internal EU policies,
Belarus has shifted from a balancing state between East and West to a highly dependent ally of Russia under Aliaksandr Lukashenka’s authoritarian rule. Following the 2020–21 protests and subsequent repression, the country has become deeply integrated into Russia’s military posture, including serving as a staging ground for the war against Ukraine. Belarus’ security role is shaped by its geography, regime structure, and societal dynamics. Across future scenarios, it is likely to remain a persistent challenge for European security, requiring a policy mix of containment, resilience-building, and support for democratic forces.
Acknowledgements
The authors express their appreciation for the productive cooperation between the Egmont Institute, the European Policy Centre, and the GMF Transatlantic Foundation. This policy brief builds on a number of insightful conversations held in April 2026.
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