Outcome Pending Negotiations: The 2026 NPT Review Conference as a Narrative Battleground

The NPT Review Conference in May 2026 promises to be a battle between competing narratives about the evolution of the global nuclear order. This CSDS In-Depth Paper provides observers and governments in Europe and beyond with the necessary context to interpret the forthcoming diplomatic face-off. Russia and China will likely blame NATO Allies for the state of the world and the lack of nuclear disarmament. They will also aggressively promote the idea that NATO’s nuclear sharing arrangements and extended nuclear deterrence are supposedly at odds with the NPT. Such arguments contrast with the historical track record and their own behaviour, however. Russia’s attempts at nuclear intimidation during the war against Ukraine and the rapid expansion of the Chinese nuclear arsenal represent the fundamental drivers fuelling nuclear instability. Against the background of this war of words, the prospects for a negotiated outcome document that fulfils high expectations about disarmament are dim. Yet the NPT regime remains a global norm that is worth defending. A minimal agenda for maintaining the NPT can be built around constraining proliferation, promoting access to peaceful uses of nuclear energy, boosting transparency and risk reduction and engaging in frank and open dialogue. Recognising the enduring accomplishments of the NPT, governments in Europe and beyond would do well to invest in the strategic literacy of their own publics, engage all their diplomatic partners and not leave the narrative battlespace open for exploitation.