The Coffee Machine

A few years ago we acquired a shiny new coffee machine for the common room at the Egmont Institute. A beautiful piece of equipment, which produces a truly impressive noise when you push the button to make coffee. A very complicated apparatus too, which is easily blocked. Fortunately, someone with more relevant qualifications than a PhD in political science is always on hand to fix it. The thing is, if you forget to put the coffee beans in, and push the button anyway, it makes exactly the same amount of enthusiastic noise – but, of course, no coffee comes out at the end.

Is that not precisely the state of the EU’s Common Security and Defence Policy? Member States have built up a very complex machinery, which keeps on turning and turning. People working in the CSDP structures are genuinely busy, with tight deadlines to meet. But which results does the system actually produce? Very few, because the Member States, having plugged in the machine, have constantly declined to put in the beans.

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The Coffee Machine

A few years ago we acquired a shiny new coffee machine for the common room at the Egmont Institute. A beautiful piece of equipment, which produces a truly impressive noise when you push the button to make coffee. A very complicated apparatus too, which is easily blocked. Fortunately, someone with more relevant qualifications than a PhD in political science is always on hand to fix it. The thing is, if you forget to put the coffee beans in, and push the button anyway, it makes exactly the same amount of enthusiastic noise – but, of course, no coffee comes out at the end.

Is that not precisely the state of the EU’s Common Security and Defence Policy? Member States have built up a very complex machinery, which keeps on turning and turning. People working in the CSDP structures are genuinely busy, with tight deadlines to meet. But which results does the system actually produce? Very few, because the Member States, having plugged in the machine, have constantly declined to put in the beans.

Some things do work. The EU can do military operations (though it could be a lot more ambitious). Beyond the CSDP, the Commission’s defence industrial policies have enormous potential. But when it comes to defence planning and capability development, the CSDP has failed. So much effort goes into the Headline Goal Process and the Capability Development Plan – and in the capitals, nobody cares.

I was watching, as a fresh PhD student, when the CSDP machine was first installed. How promising it was! But exactly twenty-five years later, I can only conclude that the Member States don’t want the CSDP to work. They prefer to get their coffee elsewhere in town: from NATO, where they mix in American beans.

NATO has not solved the problem either, though. Europeans do need to align their defence efforts somewhere, because all of their armed forces put together do not make for a complete set of forces. There are many vital capabilities that only the US provides. As the US prioritises Asia (since President Obama’s “pivot” in 2012 already!), that is a strategic risk that Europe can no longer afford.

Let us build that complete force package then where European states seem more willing to act: in NATO. The European pillar of NATO that many are now talking about does not just mean, however, that all European Allies do a bit more, each in their own corner. It requires that they go beyond the capability targets that the NATO Defence Planning Process (NDPP) has currently assigned to them, and collectively decide which strategic enablers and other capabilities they will acquire to complete their set of forces: satellites, strategic transport, air defence, missiles etc.

The objective must be an autonomous European pillar of NATO. Not in the political sense (there need not be a European caucus in the North Atlantic Council), but in military terms. The European pillar must have all the conventional capabilities to deter or defend European territory, and to project military force outside Europe, without having recourse to a single US asset. A real European pillar would need but a single American soldier, in fact: SACEUR. Indeed, it is precisely because SACEUR is an American that the Europeans may trust this to work. At the same time, if domestic politics would lead the US to reduce its commitment to NATO, the Europeans should be ready to seamlessly take over any task that the US might withdraw from.

All of this requires a collective effort. That is where the EU can help. Not by duplicating NATO defence planning, but by using instruments such as the European Defence Fund and PESCO to help the Member States build a comprehensive, full-spectrum force package within NATO. That requires concentration of effort: stop doing what doesn’t work, end the non-important projects, and focus the tools that do work on the few big capabilities that Europe urgently needs to complete its defence. That could be called a European Defence Union: a union of national, multinational, EU, and NATO efforts.

The one thing the Member States should absolutely not do, is carry on pretending that they take the CSDP seriously. If it didn’t work these past twenty-five years, it is not going to work now. Everybody is tired of hearing that for such a new policy, so much progress has been made. The CDSP is not new: it’s been twenty-five years. And in defence planning and capability development, there is no progress. Let us show respect for the people who work in the CSDP structures, and only give them tasks that matter.

Of course, there is no point in creating a new hype, a European pillar of NATO, and then treat it like we treated the CSDP. We need a concept that is implemented, not another mirage that will only irritate. If, however, Europeans truly create an autonomous pillar in NATO, they must understand it is a military instrument. The Grand Strategy and the foreign policy that it serves, Europeans can only forge in the EU.

By the way: some time ago the coffee machine at Egmont broke down. Now everyone has to organise their own coffee for their guests and events. Needless to say, that doesn’t really work well.

Sven Biscop starts every working day with a cup of coffee and one Belgian praline.

(Photo credit: Sven Biscop)