D. Trump or the Emperor Strikes Back
- EU and strategic partners,
- EU institutional affairs,
- EU strategy and foreign policy,
- Europe in the World,
The accession of Donald Trump to the American presidency on January 20 is likely to upset the grand strategy put in place by the Biden administration. Despite a certain degree of continuity in many areas, there will be major ruptures.
1. “The Emperor Will Show You The True Nature Of The Force…”
The new administration will favor a single form of leadership, namely transactional leadership, through which the distinction between allies, partners and rivals, as in its first term, will be smoothed out. This leadership will also be limited to the use of power exclusively through coercion, sanctions, threats and rewards, thus ignoring all other forms of power, to the detriment of long-term American interests. For Trump, all international questions and issues deserve this one and only answer. Consequently, “If the only tool you have in your toolbox is a hammer, everything looks like a nail”. Indeed, his declarations during his presidential campaign and since his election indicate that it will be a question above all of imposing rather than consulting. In Trump’s mind, the international environment is a place of competition in which it is necessary to secure control over markets, technologies and resources (see his statements on Panama, Greenland and Canada). Under no circumstances will it be a matter of socializing other states in a logic of adequacy; the logic of consequences will predominate.
This paper was originally published by Centre d’étude des crises et des conflits internationaux and the full text can be found on their website.
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