China’s Nuclear Shadow Reaches Europe

Many observers of European security still assume that China’s nuclear arsenal build-up does not threaten European interests. Yet as China moves away from a minimalist nuclear force posture, the US must necessarily recalibrate its own strategy and posture. This has a grave bearing on NATO’s deterrence construct, in which nearly all European allies depend on US nuclear weapons to provide for their fundamental security needs. China’s nuclear expansion thus adds urgency to the need to adapt NATO’s nuclear posture to the post-2022 environment.

China’s emergence as the second nuclear peer competitor of the US cannot help but impact European security in three ways. Firstly, it raises new questions for all three NATO nuclear powers as far as their nuclear strategy and posture are concerned. Washington, London and Paris face the question of whether their legacy posture remains fit for purpose in the future. If not, they will probably recalibrate their posture accordingly. Secondly, the emergence of nuclear multipolarity complicates deterrence decision-making and signalling. This may well translate into an erosion of the confidence allies have in extended deterrence. Thirdly, China’s growing arsenal puts renewed emphasis on theatre-level (as opposed to strategic-level) nuclear deterrence. As such, developments in the Indo-Pacific region amplify the need to reinvigorate NATO’s theatre-level deterrence.

Instead of thinking about China’s nuclear arsenal as something that hardly affects European security, nuclear deterrence dynamics in Europe and the Indo-Pacific must be analysed together. With concerns about potential US abandonment already high in Europe due to the looming spectre of a second Trump presidency, China’s nuclear shadow can no longer be ignored by European capitals.