The Trump Effect: A Longer War, a Stronger Putin
In
With Donald Trump’s return to office, the war in Ukraine has entered a radically different dynamic. This should come as no surprise, given that his governing style—now even more than in his first term—ranges from disruptive and unconventional to erratic and impulsive
*****
The Trump Effect: A Longer War, a Stronger Putin
With Donald Trump’s return to office, the war in Ukraine has entered a radically different dynamic. This should come as no surprise, given that his governing style—now even more than in his first term—ranges from disruptive and unconventional to erratic and impulsive, oscillating between unpredictability and strategic opportunism.
Under the guise of a pacifist narrative—presenting himself as the one who can ‘stop the suffering and killing’—while simultaneously portraying himself as the sole possessor of superior knowledge and power, Trump is pushing for a deal for the sake of the deal. A deal that serves to uphold his reputation as a successful businessman and reinforce his hubristic claim that he would end the war immediately upon taking office. In May 2023, he declared: “If I’m president, I’ll have that war settled in one day, 24 hours. I’ll meet with Putin, meet with Zelensky… and within 24 hours, that war will be settled.”
Now, it is clear that in pursuing this approach, Trump disregards any legal or moral considerations and disrupts the carefully established 2022 Western strategy of isolating and weakening the Russian regime in response to its illegal, brutal, and criminal war in Ukraine.
Peace at What Price?
Who could possibly oppose the idea of ending the war? Certainly not Ukraine, which has endured immense suffering and longs for peace. Yet even Russia claims to seek peace—though on its own terms.
For Ukraine, as the victim of Russia’s aggression—facing mass killings, intimidation, destruction, kidnappings, and torture—peace is a dream of survival. It envisions a future where displaced families can reunite, and life can be restored to its pre-2022, or even pre-2014, state. However, for Ukraine, peace must go hand in hand with justice. Reparations, security guarantees, and accountability for war crimes are prerequisites to prevent history from repeating itself.
This stance is reflected in Ukrainian public opinion, where trust in President Volodymyr Zelenskyi has increased since Trump’s return to the White House, despite the latter’s intimidation tactics. In February 2025, 57% of Ukrainians trusted Zelenskyi (compared to 52% in December 2024), while 37% did not, resulting in a trust-distrust balance of +20% (up from +13% in December). Additionally, despite battlefield challenges and Trump’s pressure, 50% of Ukrainians believe their country should not surrender any territory under any circumstances, even if it prolongs the war. Meanwhile, 39% believe some territorial concessions may be necessary to achieve peace. (11% remained undecided.)
For Russia, “peace” means something entirely different. The Kremlin envisions an imposed settlement under which Ukraine would be disarmed, forced into neutrality, and stripped of its eastern and southern regions. In essence, Russia’s version of “peace” equates to conquest and domination.
Putin’s Strengthening Position
Recent trends indicate that Putin’s hardline stance is gaining traction within Russia. A revealing survey question asked Russians:
“If Vladimir Putin were to withdraw Russian troops from Ukraine and begin ceasefire negotiations without achieving the initial goals of the military operation, would you support or oppose this decision?”
In February 2025, 46% opposed such a withdrawal, while 41% supported it. This marks a shift towards a more hawkish Russian public opinion. Previously, 47-49% had supported negotiations, while 30-33% were against it.
Russian analysts attribute this shift to several factors:
- Trump’s arrival in power, his quick-fix rhetoric, and his pro-Russian stance.
- Recent Russian military gains in Kursk Oblast and the Donbas frontline.
Thus, rather than facilitating peace, Trump’s actions are emboldening the Kremlin, reinforcing its maximalist demands, and weakening Ukraine’s negotiating position.
Trump’s Illusions About Russia
Trump may believe he can personally convince Putin to make concessions. However, this confidence is likely misplaced. Trump fundamentally underestimates Russia’s negotiation tradition and overestimates his own deal-making skills.
Unlike the transactional, take-it-or-leave-it approach that Trump prefers, Russia has mastered a disciplined, hard-nosed, and highly strategic negotiation playbook. The Kremlin’s approach involves:
- Maximizing initial demands to shape the battlefield of negotiations.
- Delaying concessions as long as possible.
- Using psychological pressure, including intimidation and unpredictability.
- Employing ambiguity, vagueness, and repetition to wear down the other side.
- Controlling the pace and timing of negotiations to its advantage.
This is not a process where a simple, hurried “deal” will emerge overnight. Instead, Russia will prolong negotiations, extract maximum concessions, and ensure that any agreement locks Ukraine into a vulnerable, subordinate position.
A War Too Important to Be Left to Trump
It is therefore dangerous to fall for Trump’s illusions. Despite his boasts about knowing Vladimir Putin well, he seems unaware that Russia will not be rushed into a deal on his terms. The reality is far more complex.
So far, there is no ceasefire, let alone a sustainable peace agreement in sight. On the contrary, as Russia strengthens its military position and its hawkish stance solidifies, a genuine settlement appears more distant than ever.
Thus, Trump’s strategy of disruption does not lead to change—it reinforces the status quo. His bullying tactics, power-based approach, and disregard for legal and moral principles do not weaken Russia—they embolden it. Meanwhile, he intimidates Ukraine, withholding crucial support to force concessions while flattering the Kremlin and prioritizing a great-power deal over the fundamental rights of a sovereign nation.
But will Trump have the patience and skill to navigate this drawn-out negotiation process? Will he accept the reality that Russia will dictate the rhythm, maximizing its war gains? Based on Moscow’s adherence to its well-established Soviet-Russian negotiation playbook, it is highly likely that Trump will fail to achieve his promised “immediate peace” and, as in the past, reverse his own claims and abandon his supposed strategy.
The tragic irony is that, instead of bringing an end to the war, Trump’s misguided intervention may prolong it further.
Ultimately, the war in Ukraine is too important to be left to Donald Trump. He may think otherwise, and that is the real tragedy.
(Photo credit: Wikimedia Commons)